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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  March 11, 2013 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

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read and consider it carefully before investing. risk includes possible loss of principal. welcome back to "squawk on the street." welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm kayla tausche at the market flash desk. watching shares of electronic arts. last week, the stock saw a very rocky trade as it launched its newest version of simil city. but developers are saying that sim city's traffic was so high the servers couldn't handle it but that they've fixed the issue. it should be fine for you. electronic arts up better than
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4% now. >> that's a big move. let's get to "squawk on the tweet" this morning. google as you know by now is rolling out a prototype of this smart shoe. does all kinds of things. gives you advice, tracks your running and gives you encouragement. the question is, what's the next article of clothing that google will hack and what will it say to you? rick writes, google underwear tallies the total carbon emission due to collected flatulence data. another tweet says, replace the cap on your tooth with the google tooth to wirelessly monitor your diet. and then brian writes, google belt saying, breakfast too big, please move to the next notch. not bad. take a look at shares of blackberry this morning -- actually, citi as well. there's blackberry, continues to move higher on the news that at&t is going to launch the blackberry z-10 on march 22nd. $199 is the price point.
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and watch shares of the dow itself year to date. we actually got to a 10% gain year to date which is at 14,414. we're right there. the computers came off of this level on friday. we'll see if we can sustain it through the rest of the afternoon session. let's get back to headquarters. scott wapner and the "halftime." welcome to the "halftime" show. four hours to go until the close. here's where we stand. the dow, no case of the mondays, at least thus far. up every day last week and it is in the green right now. a gain of nearly 18 points s&p is trying to work positive. nasdaq, negative behind me. here's what we're following. tech wrecked, the tech has underperformed the rally. is all that about to change? we reveal the names to lead to a tech turnaround. out of style? two of our traders make their
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cases for where urban outfitters goes from here. more big names joining the chorus of those looking for a market pullback, will they be right? when will it happen? how steep will it be. and what should you do? how about that, steve weiss? will we see a correction and soon? >> we're going to see one but not of any meaningful size. i did shave a little bit on some of the trading positions. part of it is that, frankly, i'll be away for the second half of the week. no reason to cheer about that just yet. and the other reason is we've come pretty far pretty fast except i still think the market goes higher. there's nothing that we don't know. the employment number was very strong. china news keeps coming in very weak. stay away from the infrastructure plays. the market's going to continue to go higher while we see every central bank throw massive
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liqu liquidties -- >> but it's not going to last forever. >> i think we could come down 2%. that's not a correction. >> 2%. joe, what do you see? >> this job is hard enough in terms of trying to make money. new you have to dismiss the premise that we're going to see this q2 slowdown, growth contraction. and to defend against that possibly happening, you truly have to lock ok at the numbers. s&p 500, new 52-week high. broad across all the sectors whether it's disney or american express, j & j or even a u.p.s. participation is all there. dismissing whether or not this correction is coming, i think, is part of what our job is right now. i just don't see it. there's no evidence currently to suggest it. look where we are in the wake of friday. if we were going to sell off, we were going to sell off on that good news, have that kind of reversal off of friday. we haven't seen an inclination
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of that. >> simon baker, what do you see? the longer we wait for the correction, does it make it less likely to happen? >> to weiss' point, if you say it's going to go correct long enough, it's going to go down. scared money hasn't made money. the technicals are overstretched. but fundamentally, things look good. job numbers looked strong last week. m&a has picked up. stock repurchasing. raise some cash. what we're doing is moving up the market cap, making it a little more balanced oppose to overweight the cyclicals. >> dr. "j"? >> in the short term, i think we're all pretty much on board that it's not -- the cards aren't telling you that it's going to be a big correction, that 10%-plus variety. i think what we're looking at here, judge, is we just broke through 12 moments ago in the vix behind me. the fact that we're now down at 12, meanwhile the futures out in may are at 16, that's a 33%, 35%
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move higher in the volatility that basically people are pricing in out in may rather than here in the short term. so short term, they're saying, narrow range. not a lot of movement. further out, bigger moves. >> so you guys are telling me not one person on the desk today sees a correction of any sizable meaning, no 5%, no 10% -- people are going to say, i better prepare -- if all of these guys are bullish still. >> didn't we have a test run at the end of february? people are dismissing -- the price action at the end of february, it was a modest correction. i think that's indicative of where overall sentiment is for the market right now. maybe it is as simple as there is really no other alternative except equities to the returns you're going to get on cash and bonds. >> 5% correction, very much buyable dips. a lot of people are sitting on the sidelines waiting to get in. we keep hitting new highs.
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everyone's crying for a big correction. these are all buyable dips. get back in and own the names you like. >> nothing goes up in a straight line. but to sit here and manage money whether it's your own money or money on behalf of others, try and pick the moment in time when you're going to correct when your view generally is that the market is healthy and going higher, i think that's sort of playing with fire. that will cost you money. we're not in a euphoric market. it's been very balanced, very measured. friday we had one day since the beginning of the year where the market was up more than 1%, yet it's been down more than 1% a few times. to me, that's a biased to the upside. >> back in december on this very show, barry knapp called for a correction to come in the first half of the year. hasn't happened yet. where does he stand now? he joins us live from new york city. nice to see you again. >> nice to see you guys. >> i know you've listened to the conversation. what do you think now? since you called for the correction in december, we've pretty much gone straight up. >> we thought this year would be pretty good.
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but we didn't think it would be a straight shot up. it doesn't seem like it's a 95 type environment where we've gone through the fed normalization process. we were just in a position to rally through the course of the year. what we think is likely to happen in the second quarter is the culmination of weak growth numbers, primarily attributable to the fiscal contraction and i care less about the sequester and the spending cuts than i do about the tax hikes. but weak consumption will likely trigger a pullback and it will come in the parts of the market most leveraged to the domestic economy, namely, discretionary and the financial sector. so we still think that that's plausible. i would tell you as i listened to everyone and as we've been thinking about things, what is a bit different this year versus each of the last three is in each of the last three, we had a real deterioration in the public policy outlook as we got into the second quarter. in 2010, we started out with
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this idea that affordable care would not get passed. that meant dodd/frank wouldn't get passed. that culminated with the scott brown election in january. and of course things went south from there. in 2011, we came off the mid-terms and the euphoria associated with that. things deteriorated. and last year, all about the presidential election and the negative impact that had on capital spending. this year, it looks like -- and when we talked about it in december, we thought the fiscal cliff would be a negative outcome. it was. but we would have never expected that the debt ceiling debate, sequester and continuing resolution would all pass without an agreement and that basically the direction of the government spending, the deficit and even the rate of change of increase in the debt would start to stabilize a bit. and that is a different dynamic than we had in each of the last four years -- three years. so that probably implies that it has to be the growth numbers that caused the correction. >> let's have a healthy debate about this.
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joe terranova has something for you. >> barry, i'm a little bit confused in terms of growth expectations. is the risk not to the upside when we look at gdp, given what we've seen in some of the economic data this march, whether it be friday's labor report or even looking at the ism, nonmanufacturing, and manufacturing? >> there's two dynamics going on. what we thought -- the way we thought things would unfold this year is because we expected public policy uncertainty to fall and because capital spending was as weak as it was, anytime in the last 25 years by the third quarter of last year, that that would dissipate. and so the business confidence would improve and the capital spending side of the economy, labor, investment, would improve as well. but the consumer piece looks pretty soft. if you looked at last week's consumer credit number, there was no increase in revolving credit in the month of january. as you know, core retail soaps only increased .1%. you've seen what's happened to retail earnings estimates.
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what walmart and target said about comps in the first quarter. we think the consumer spending stuff is going to be weak. take out health care, that's still 55%, to 65% of the economy and it's a big deal -- >> hasn't consumer confidence held up, though? we're finally seeing gas prices start to come down a little bit. people see we're making new highs for the dow. maybe there's a disconnect between some of the actual action that's happening and some of the names and retailers that you mentioned and what's really the feeling of america. >> really good point. throughout this entire so-called expansion, hits, changes to business confidence really have intacted spending. capital spending and labor investment with a bit of a lag. but on the consumer side, it's not been confidence. it's all been about cash flow. in the summer of 2011 when house prices stabilized and the negative wealth effects turned, then confidence plunged during the debt ceiling debate but
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spending accelerated. >> barry, it's joe again. i want to go back for one second. again, in terms of the ism manufacturing figures which are incredibly relevant and friday's labor report, should i dismiss what is perceived to be as improvement in those figures? >> not completely. my broader point -- maybe i wasn't being particularly clear. if so, i apologize. the capital spending side has improved somewhat. capital spending has rebounded with business confidence. but ultimately a final demand slips. if consumer spending continues to look as soft as all the anecdotes would imply and that continues through the first half of the year, business confidence will take a leg back down for that reason and that reason alone. and recall, while i am also encouraged by the labor data, i'm a little reluctant to get carried away with that because we had the same dynamic because of seasonals each of the last three years as well by the time we got to the second quarter, it weakened. my broader point is it has to be
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about consumer spending if we're going to get the correction. that would cause ism to come down and cause all business confidence measures to come off. but it's not going to be a public policy external shock like the last three years. >> barry, good to have you on the show. thanks for coming back on. >> all right, thanks. >> let's kick this around for a second. whether you get a correction of 2% or 10%, the underlying theme i hear is, buy it, regardless of the pullback or the size of it. jump in with the names you like. >> barry is a great thinker. i worked with him. however, what he's citing, i believe, is a dated number, which is consumer credit. that's a january number. we're already into march. so i would say go to a more current number, which is joe's number, and the fact that corporations are so lean, have big margins and are hiring now. that's going to drive the economy. that money goes into the consumer's pocket and they spend. >> what are you trying to buy? if you look at attractive names to take advantage of because we
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get whatever a pullback is, what's the name at the top of your list? >> i'm still focused on consumer discretionary, which is kind of against what most people will come on and tell you it is, slightly defensive. looks like a bond type of trade. but whether it's a mead johnson or an sjm smuckers, those are the types of names i want to be in for what i believe are going to be further appreciation than what people expect. >> let's go over to kayla tausche and find out what she's watching. >> we're watching the new and improved blackberry. shooting up nearly 10% today on reports that orders will start being taken tomorrow for the new blackberry z-10. at&t will carry that march 22nd. a little bit earlier than expected. but if you want that q-10, the one with the keyboard, it's going to be over a month from now. but nonetheless, orders being taken tomorrow for the z-10 at at&t.
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scott? >> kayla, thank you. dr. "j," i don't know what the reaction in blackberry is today. it's not like this was a big shock, certainly from at&t. i don't know if it's a bit of a short cover or what. what do you do with it? >> people certainly liked the price point and they came in and sold puts with abandon. take a look at the 14 strike puts, i believe. they were sold very aggressively in here. 12,000 of these sold in the march short-term puts. a lot of these pounded out. that's telling people they think the floor is in at that level for the stock. >> there's also chatter on the trading desk about the stock potentially being bought out by l lebano. >> here's a blackberry 10. it's a great phone. i like it. i'm using it instead of the iphone. >> apple's price target cut today at credit agricole.
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what do you think, joe? >> what do they do again? no. we've cited, it's a second half story. i don't want to touch it here. i'd take a short position on blackberry before i take the long position on apple. is europe the big threat to the rally? why are hedge funds pouring money into that continent? gemma godfrey on whether the risks to buying europe outweigh the rewards. and later, urban outfitters' big run. two traders debate that when we come back. with the fidelity guided portfolio summary, you choose which accounts to track and use fidelity's analytics to spot trends, gain insights, and figure out what you want to do next. all in one place. i'm meredith stoddard and i helped create the fidelity guided portfolio summary. it's one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account.
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welcome back. welcome back. let's do our top three trades now on the "halftime." carl icahn disclosed a sexual stake in dell and said he opposed the deal. steve weiss, the stock is up 1.25% today. >> this is interesting. we're going to get a final look at -- if carl icahn has a look am the books and decides to sell his position after that period expires, you know the jig's up. i think right now you still hold on, as i said on friday. the risk/reward is tolerable at this point. i don't think any other buyers are going to come in. you're playing for dell to increase.
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at the end of the day, it's a failing pc business. i would not own it from a fundamental standpoint. >> joe, take a look at citi. the shares up .25%. the shares upgraded from a buy to neutral today. >> on the back of it, you get a new fees high. this is a stock that heads towards $50. it's all about a restructuring process that the ceo has laid out plans. citi holding will be wound down much more efficiently and much more faster than the street anticipates. plenty of upside potential still in a name like citi. >> dr. "j," how about best buy? a stock we talk about a lot. getting an update over at piper jaffray. what do you think about it? >> clearly some of the turnaround that's gone on here has been without schultzy and has been just on the strength of their business, judge. that's what you'd like to see. now with the s4, the samsung galaxy s4 coming out, that's one
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more driver potentially into these stores as people come around and take a look at these new devices. i like best buy. >> let's move to another retailer. lululemon, simon, you're making a move? >> i think it's time to start short in this stock. steve weiss was telling me he has two pairs of long black pants -- we're starting to see a crack in the stock. michael kors is down today. starting to see multiple compression. there's a difference when you start opening stores in kansas city and places like that. as soon as you start to see a stretch, you're going to see it down. when you short a position, don't do it all at once. build this position over the quarter. it's going to be in the $50, $55 by the end of the year. >> you mentioned kors, we'll trade that later on.
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are investors being two complacent by europe. a report from credit suisse show that hedge funds have waned. not everyoning as the danger in investing in europe is behind us. joining me now is gemma godfrey. has about $7 billion in assets under management. nice to see you again. >> thank you very much. >> we are growing too complacent about europe? >> well, this report says that hedge funds have turned bullish on europe. but if you dig deeper, it doesn't say this is a sign that there is confidence that the crisis is over. three reasons for that -- first of all, you have to look at where we came from. last year, investors were heavily underweight europe. secondly -- >> go ahead. please, finish your point. >> i was just going to say, you have to look at where the fund flows are going in. we're talking about hedge funds.
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hedge funds can trade and differentiate between the winners and losers in sideways markets and also profit from pullbacks and then finally, i heard a point about data being slightly out of date. this report includes data up to the middle of january. we've had political deadlock in europe. >> steve? >> gemma, what's interesting is all the reports i have been reading show that in terms of hedge funds that money is most attracted by a wide margin to long/short equity and is going globally coming out of commodities, going into credit but going into long slls short equity. given how all the markets have run, which market is the most attractive in the developed countries? >> we see that the reason why these flows happen so strong is there will be a focus on differentiation. that's hard is -- it's been very easy at the end of last year and
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the beginning of this year to say, consumer staples, looking a bit rich. what about financials? let's follow the momentum in trade there. we are getting more confident on cyclicals in terms of growth over the longer term. but it comes down to more these flows are going to support market levels. people are very confident on central bank stimulus. but it will be this differentiation as correlation levels continue to fall and picking between the winners and the losers. >> you've been caution on the markets over the last couple of weeks. here we have the dow up 30 points on a day where the china data was a little concerning. you have fitch downgrading italy. as we speak, we're talking about the concerns in the eurozone. what do you make of what you're seeing in the market right here, in the face of all of that, we continue to move higher and what does it say about the prospects for a correction? >> what it shows is if you look at the technicals, the markets aren't yet overbought which is
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why even if we see a correction, which would be desperately needing and healthy, it would be muted and it would be an opportunity for these investors to come in. if you look at where the flows are on the long-only side, you need to put more risk on the table. but it's much more muted. and retail investors are still focused on risk averse income orien at a timed investments. it shows there's still more for us to go to gain full conviction. but longer term, it is the place to be. >> gemma, thanks as always. coming up, the stock that's up 60% this year and is seeing massive volume today, we'll reveal it and we're going to trade it. arben outfitters rallying. are earnings going to keep that momentum going? the answer is dividing the desk which means we're debating it when we come back. but we can still help you see your big picture. with the fidelity guided portfolio summary, you choose which accounts to track
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welcome back. welcome back. urban outfitters soaring over the past year, the retailer reports after the bell tonight. it's expected to earn twice the earnings per share from a year ago.
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does that mean you should buy it ahead of the numbers? it's time to debate it. joe terranova is the bull. simon baker is our bear. 1:30 is on the clock. joe terranova, make your case. >> the turnaround story continues for this stock. it has been all about in 2012 restoring the margins. you'll see margins in 2013 approach 40%. when you look at the holiday numbers, urban was the outstanding, number one winner. you can make an argument gap was there as well. but free people up 33%. anthropology very strong. the momentum continues. the stock is at $41. i think it goes to $45. >> what's the problem? >> i agree with all that. but i think we're trying to trade names. the stock is up 40%. the s&p 500 is up 12%. all the easy work's been done. i'm looking at evaluation and also from a catalyst. you mentioned anthropology. they've had trouble over there. i think there's better plays out there. trading at 30 times future terngs is expensive.
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better off with something like the gap. >> is he wrong? >> i think if he is. if it falls, it's a name you want to own. input costs will continue to move lower. cotton prices relatively benign over the last few months. and they have to spend less on this turnaround story. they have the e-commerce business which did not work well. i don't see any alternatives to it. gap is working. urban is working. stay with it. >> 16 times earnings, why wouldn't you buy a gap or limited rather than 30 times earnings? the downside risk if they miss is big. if you miss, why wouldn't you parlay it -- >> let me answer to that point. i'm not long urban. i'd love to see it miss. it has worked in the mid-30s. >> gavel comes down. let's get the verdict. stephen weiss, who made the more compelling argument on urban? >> if we can get a close-up of simon, from guys wear a lego tie
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clip and his shirts bought from the little abner -- it's a turnaround stock. i would advise not staying there too long because it is fashion. they've had problems before and teens can be fickle. >> how about the virtual doctor? an opinion on urban? who made the more compelling argument, dr. "j"? >> i like buying it on dips. i agree with joe. but i think the risks are to the downside here. so i haven't touched this one lately, judge. i think i would wait, like i say, i'm not saying you're wrong, joe. i say we wait to get in this one. >> tell us who you think won the debate. you can tweet us. use either the hashtag bull or bear. we'll have the results and what you thought at the end of the show. the european markets are closing an hour later than they initial do because of the time change. and simon hobbs has it covered for us.
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>> american markets have outperformed what's going on in europe. very reactive phase at the moment partly as a result of the data that came out of france which was not good. france could be headed for another recession, its third in four years. also the china data wasn't very good overnight. the dow, the s&p in positive territory, if we can have a look at europe as it's the european close, i could show you that much of europe is -- there we go. it's in negative territory. notably what is happening in italy. italy's fallen badly today, reacting to news that we had on friday's session in the afternoon that fitch is catching up with the rest of the ratings agency and downgrading it one notch to bbb-plus as a result of the indiciveness of the elections. the italian financials have taken it on the chin. a lot of those are in negative territory. and we continue to focus on what is happening with the italian bond market as well. scott, don't forget that friday is when the italian parliament
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will finally meet. these are some of the banks that fell today. friday is when they meet and hopefully at that point we'll get some clarity as to whether or not we're heading back to another election in italy. >> simon, thanks so much. we'll see how the u.s. markets fare now that europe has closed for the day. coming up on the "halftime," is it time to buy unloved tech. the names may not be cool but kim forrest with more than $1 billion under management has a list of stocks that may be ready to rally. "halftime" is back in a couple of minutes. [ kitt ] you know what's impressive? a talking car.
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want to go want to go back to the market flash desk to see exactly what's moving right now. courtney reagan is over there. what do you see? >> take a look at shares of zynga. shares really surging here, heavy volume in the first couple of hours of trade. we know that tiger global made some investment in a lot of names in this area, potentially a reason for the move, but really not to be missed because of the volume that we're seeing here. you guys can trade it. >> courtney, thanks. dr. "j" will do just that. >> 10 to 1 calls to puts are
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trading to courtney's reporting. a lot of it could be on both pennsylvania, which is looking at doing online gaming, as well as what new jersey governor christie signed last week. both of those appear to be why tiger and others are interested in this stock. >> whether or not the rally continues could very well hinge on the performance of technology, whi whiasn't done as well as other sectors lately. the question is, is that about to change? kim forrest joins us now from pittsburgh. nice to see you again, kim. welcome back. >> thanks for having me on. >> why has tech lagged as much as it has? it's more than just apple, right? it's been a big underperformer. >> we generally look at the parts manufacturers or more business-oriented software and hardware. i think it's lagged because of the tremendous advertised slowdown of capex spending in the fourth quarter. i don't think investors really wanted to buy at that point until they saw what the trough would do. >> where from here? any indication that you see that that will pick up and thus the
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stock performance will as well? >> yeah. there are a couple of things that we track. these are kind of nerdy metrics. but i think your viewers will really like this. we look at nand and de-ram pricing. and it should fall off because a lot of stuff gets bought to be assembled in the fourth quarter. and then prices drop. it's a yearly function. and this year, these prices are on fire. i think i saw d-ram chips up something like 82% since december. and this just doesn't happen. that says people are buying computers and there's a supply/demand problem here. >> translate that into the names you like to take advantage of what you're seeing. >> sure. probably if first name that would take advantage of that mispricing that's going on is sandisk. they make the little chip go into your phones, computer tablets, add-on memory. but they also make solid state
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disk drives that go into tablets, that sort of thing. they are just having a great year so far with respect to the pullthrough demand. and we think pricing, they're going to have much greater pricing this quarter, probably into the next quarter. that's where i would look. also intel is very, very unloved at this point. i think investors tend to think of them as a pc maker, chipmaker. and we really see that they have an ability to move into the mobile space. and we're a believer in that story. >> of the assets you have under management, we mentioned $1.2 billion, do you guys own apple? >> no, we do not. >> do you own google? >> no, we do not. >> why not? >> again, i'm more focused on business-to-business sort of transactions. and apple to this point have been a bring your own device story, not necessarily a mac on every desktop.
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i'm really terrible about picking out what consumers like. i know what businesses like and i'm sticking to it. >> kim, i know businesses clearly like security and software that allows you to get that. are there any names in particular that you would focus on in the technology security type of equity names? >> yeah -- well, actually, i'd look at system and network management. and that kind of plays into the security area. there's a lot of smaller companies that i don't want to really talk about at this point. the larger names, c.a., bmc and ibm all play in that space. i think those are good names to look at. especially c.a. because they have a really rich dividend at this point. >> bigger names, oracle, are you in there? >> no. we're not in there. i keep looking at them. they're really a merger story and i'm still undecided, like what they're going to acquire next. >> ibm? >> we like ibm.
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we do own ibm. >> kim, quick question. what's your bigger winner in the tech space in your portfolio this year? >> biggest tech space -- you would ask me that. i had a little company last year that was bought out that was just tremendous for us. we bought it at $8. it got taken over at $41. that was a fantastic name. it was opnet. that was really stellar. this year, technology's limping along. it's going to be great. but we just don't know when. >> what would be your biggest winner this year, do you think? what do you have the highest hopes for? >> sandisk is white hot. >> kim, thanks so much. >> thank you. >> appreciate it. >> a name dr. "j" and i have talked about, panw, pulled back from $62. it's a name i'm looking at and will own over the next couple of days. >> the message from kim is you have to be selective and really selective when it comes to technology plays right now. >> and she's not been in the
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right industry. the semiconductor space -- looking at the googles, the amazon, those are spaces, security names. barron's had a big article about it. >> she's looking to capitalize now on at least -- >> sandisk is not -- it's in contrast to her other names like intel because sandisk is expensive here. at the end of the day, it's a memory company. i like it. that's a commodity, depending upon where capacity comes in and goes out. so i'd rather buy it on a dip. in terms of other names, intel, that's a story -- it's as unloved now as it was a year ago. >> to that point n this type of market, you have to be where the momentum is as opposed to the value at this stage in the market. those are the names that continue to do well. the stocks hitting new highs and continuing to hit new highs. >> let's hit "pops & drops." dick's sporting goods. >> i'm not as enamored with dick's as simon is.
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but the quarter is weak. if you look at how weak it was, we had a very warm winter. i'm going to wait for it. i wanto know how much gun sales really helped them. i may buy it lower. >> genworth financial? >> a good article over the weekend saying the valuation of this stock isn't being recognized. buy it. >> the virtual doc, cliff's natural. >> continues to underperform. it's going to get down there and test $23.50 again. might be a washout around that level. it's underperformed all of the people in the mining sector in particular for metallurgic and also for the other coals. i think this one is nearing a bottom. >> valero, joe? >> it's not rush through this one. this is one that i've talked about in terms of owning the refiners at overweight levels.
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i told you brent and ti is going to continue to move out. i'm of the opinion that i could be potentially wrong. i would move refiners to a new status. seeing too much continued weakness in the space, not to take notice. >> coming up on the "half," breaking through the glass ceiling. facebook's cheryl sandberg sure did it. so did kathleen kelly of queen anne's gate. she's with us to share our best investment idea right now. "halftime" is back in a couple of minutes.
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ready for "power lunch," this is the place. we start with a little nice cabernet. then we put on the spanx and then we are ready for the program. and houd the program includes the business of football, ge teaming up with the nfl to come up with a safer helmet. we'll have the details on that. the long-awaited blackberry 10 goes on sale in the united states. we'll tell you how investors are reacting. and if you own a pension, the agency backing it up might be in trouble, how you could be effective. if i don't have enough of the wine, we go straight for the maker's mark. >> thanks so much. volatility hitting a multi-year low. if the vix closes the day around its current level, it would mark the lowest close of the bull market. doc, we're going to you here. what do you make of this. do we need to be concerned that people are getting a little bit too complacent with what's going on when you see the vix at the low levels that it's at right
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now? >> again, it's just telling us the fact -- it's just like a weather report about what's going on. the weather is bright and sunny right now. it's not stormy. if it were stormy, we'd be seeing, 15, 16, 18 vix like we saw ten days ago. >> you know how it is. you live in the midwest. a storm can blow in anytime. >> you're exactly right. >> people are predicting some nasty weather for this market in the not-too-distant future. >> right now, 68 days out into the future, the may contracts, those are 35% higher than it is right here right now. so, again, more movement, further out down the line, not so much right here. >> got it. sheryl sandberg's book is on store shell it was today sparking a big conversation about women's role in the workplace. kate kelly joins us with a special guest. >> sheryl sandberg has an interesting message rooted in
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sta statistics about the lack of women in top positions. she highlights only 14% of top jobs are held by women globally. kathleen kelly who runs queen anne's gate, the hedge fund, is an exception to that. she's had a storied career in finance starting with a few years at the new york fed and going on to work or paul tudor jones and starting her own fund last year. >> thanks for having me. >> give me your reaction to sandberg's call to arms. she's arguing that women take themselves out of the running even before the hurdles with work/life balance or other issues that come up. have you found that to be true in your own career or have you seen examples of it? obviously you have ultimately been on a fast track. >> i don't think that -- certainly there's occurrences where women are taking themselves out of the running. but i think it's great that she's taking a strong statement on this. and i think there are certain things -- it's not an easy problem to fix otherwise we
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would have fixed bit now. but there are things we could do to move the process forward, to get more women on corporate boards and in higher visibility roles within corporates. the first thing to do is fill the pipeline. i know we don't want to make excuses. but it's hard to hire women because i just started this fund. and i've been really interested in hiring women. and for all the resumes we get, we get for every 20 resumes, we probably get one for a woman. we need women to take more math and sciences and get into the pipeline. >> what's interesting, i know you, other than the fed, have always been on the buy side. what i've heard from female traders who work at banks and the buy side, sales and trading could be seen as a a fairly family friendly line of work, it's during the day but you could leave by 4:00 p.m. to get home, do homework and have dinner. do you have any sense of why there was a lack of resumes for
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women applying to your firm? >> yen, i think it's partly the pipeline because the backgrounds that we're looking for, math and sciences, are you think about j creation going forward from here and where we will see the big opportunities, it will be in tech, energy, and engineering. everybody needs to have these math and sciences backgrounds. i think we need to get young girls to take more math. we need to start encouraging young women to go into those fields. i think that probably when investment banks are looking at the same thing, that they will come up with the same thing. >> they will see the same issues. >> exactly. >> you have a funny story about working while you were in the hospital having your eldest son and how you managed to balance the work and home life. >> i think finance, hedge funds specifically rrks the ultimate level playing field.
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we can make our time fit for our lives. i run a macro fund. it trades 24 hours a day and we pick the times we want to be active in. when i had my oldest son, he was taking his time coming into this world so i ended up trading dollar yen in the delivery room. technology makes it so we can work from any place and any time we want to so we can have some work balance. i think it's a great place for women. >> we're so pleased to have you. you just mentioned that you run this global macro fund. what would your one big play be right now given the global backdrop that we're all watching? >> sure. we have been negative on the gold market for a while here. we think given the macro environment and real yields are not negative any more. given that markets are performing pretty well, we are looking at the gold etf and this
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thinking there is a lot more liquidation coming out of there. we think from the highs in 2011 to now, you have been in this range with gold and most investors are underwater. >> joe, who is a trader on the desk with us today has a question for you as well. >> you don't like gold, obviously but i heard you last year talk about platinum and obviously a great call. what do you think about that? >> we're still pretty negative on platinum. we think the supply disruptions are not enough to balance the market yet. european auto demands and jewelry mostly driven by china are the sources of end-use demand. we saw in the retail sales number overnight that jewelry demand was pretty light. we think that the demand side is still weaker than the supply disruptions. >> it's great to have you.
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thanks so much for coming in. >> thanks for having me. >> we're not related. >> i was going to say our thanks to the kellys, kate and kathl n kathleen. good to see you as always. you asked for it and our traders will deliver when we come back. investor. yeah, i'm a serious investor but i'm a busy guy. it used to be easier but now there are more choices than ever. i want to know exactly what i am investing in. i want to know exactly how much i'm paying. i want to use the same stuff the big guys use. find out why nine out of ten large professional investors choose ishares for their etfs. ishares by blackrock. call 1-800-ishares for a prospectus which includes investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. read and consider it carefully before investing. risk includes possible loss of principal. [ cows moo ] [ sizzling ]
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>> well when you >> well when you the viewers ask, we answer. boeing? simon? >> the stock's up a little bit today. the changes are made in the dream liner might be made permanent so the stock's up. until it's permanent stay awi. >> windham? >> a lot of interest in the space. >> kickly, kors. >> not going my way but willing to stay with it. >> toll. >> find your housing exposure away from the home builders. >> when we come back, final trades. it's monday. a brand new start. your chance to rise and shine. with centurylink as your trusted technology partner, you can do just that.
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